Glimmers of hope for some for a funding deal at UN climate talks, but opposition still remains

Tenuous hope for a deal for a giant funding package for poor nations to curb and adapt to climate change emerged late Saturday amid a fractured United Nations climate talks, but opposition still remains among some developing nations.

A financial package — a compromise between the US$1.3 trillion a year developing nations seek to adapt to climate change and wean off fossil fuels and the current US$100 billion amount — is in the works. It’s been shown to small island nations and it appears to be something that Fiji can live with, its delegation chief Biman Prasad told The Associated Press. He wouldn’t reveal the amount, but the previous number that small islands had rejected was US$250 billion a year.

The presidency of the COP29 talks said a final draft text on the dollar amounts will be out soon. Prasad said he has been consulted on it and it will be enough because there are options for it to grow.

“Everybody is committed to having an agreement,” Prasad said. “They are not necessarily happy about everything, but the bottom line is everybody wants a good agreement.”

But Panama’s Juan Carlos Monterrey called it “unacceptable” in a post on X, saying “the text is detrimental to our future and the qualified goal is still very low.”

Other small island delegates were more circumspect than Fiji’s Prasad.

“Many things are still inconclusive,” Barbados’ Liz Thompson said. “We agreed to ensure there was not a collapse of the meeting.”

A day of strong disagreements

Earlier on Saturday, negotiators went from one big room where everyone tried to hash out a deal together into several separate huddles of upset nations.

Hallway talk oscillated between hope for shuttle diplomacy to bridge the gap and kicking the can down the road to sometime next year. Negotiators and analysts had mostly given up hope that the host presidency would get the job done.

After an initial proposal of US$250 billion a year was soundly rejected Friday, the Azerbaijan presidency brewed up a new rough draft of US$300 billion, that was never formally presented, but also dismissed roundly by African nations and small island states, according to messages relayed from inside. Then a group of negotiators from the Least Developed Countries bloc and the Alliance of Small Island States left the room.

When asked if the walkout was a protest, Colombia environment minister Susana Mohamed told The Associated Press: “I would call this dissatisfaction, (we are) highly dissatisfied.”

Before the conference loses its quorum of countries in attendance, Meyer said there’s a bigger concern: Loss of key ministers. If enough key ministers leave, there’s not enough people in power to hammer out a deal, he said.

What’s next? Success or delay

The meeting is already one day past its scheduled end date and the longer it goes the higher the chance that enough delegates will leave that it will not have a quorum to continue, which happened to the biodiversity COP last month in Cali, Colombia.

Late Saturday, COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev gaveled through less contentious parts of negotiations — although the passing of Article 6, a mechanism to cut fossil fuels through a market for buying offsets for polluters was met with some opposition.

“We know that carbon markets have failed to address emissions and what they’ve done essentially is undermine the mandate to try to reach 1.5,” said Tamara Gilbertson, climate justice program coordinator with the Indigenous Environmental Network, referring to the goal to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above preindustrial times. The presidency hailed it as a success, saying its passing ends a decade-long wait to unlock a “critical tool” to slash emissions.

On climate finance, Meyer said there is still hope that someone can bridge the gap between the separate parties, find common ground and then hand the presidency a compromise on a sliver platter.

If not, there’s two possibilities, Meyer said. One is that the meeting could be adjourned temporarily until next January — before Donald Trump takes power in the United States. And the other is that some kind of small agreement — not on finance — could be made and everything financial gets pushed to next year’s COP in Belem, Brazil. But that meeting is already jam-packed with importance because it’s when the world is supposed to increase its carbon pollution-cutting efforts.

Accusations of a war of attrition

Developing countries accused the rich of trying to get their way — and a small financial aid package — via a war of attrition.

After bidding one of his suitcase-lugging delegation colleagues goodbye and watching the contingent of about 20 enter the meeting room for the European Union, Panama’s Monterrey Gomez had enough.

“Every minute that passes we are going to just keep getting weaker and weaker and weaker. They don’t have that issue. They have massive delegations,” Monterrey Gomez said. “This is what they always do. They break us at the last minute. You know, they push it and push it and push it until our negotiators leave. Until we’re tired, until we’re delusional from not eating, from not sleeping.”

With developing nations’ ministers and delegation chiefs having to catch flights home, desperation sets in, said Power Shift Africa’s Mohamed Adow. “The risk is if developing countries don’t hold the line, they will likely be forced to compromise and accept a goal that doesn’t add up to get the job done,” he said.

Monterrey Gomez said the developing world has since asked for finance deal of US$500 billion up to 2030 — a shortened timeframe than the 2035 date. “We’re still yet to hear reaction from the developed side,” he said.

He added that there needs to be a deal.

“If we don’t get a deal I think it will be a fatal wound to this process, to the planet, to people,” he said.

Associated Press journalists Ahmed Hatem, Aleksandar Furtula and Joshua A. Bickel contributed to this report.

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